San Francisco’s Seismic Safety Strategy: What Property Owners Need to Know About the New Concrete Ordinance
Earthquakes Are Inevitable — Collapse Doesn’t Have to Be
San Francisco faces a 72% chance of a major earthquake (M6.7+) within the next 30 years, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The question isn’t if — it’s when.
That’s why the City has spent decades strengthening its most vulnerable buildings, starting with unreinforced masonry and wood-frame soft story buildings. Now, it’s launching a major new effort — targeting non-ductile concrete buildings, which pose some of the most serious life-safety risks in a major quake.
What Is a Non-Ductile Concrete Building?
“Non-ductile” means the concrete can’t bend or flex under stress. These buildings — typically built before 1980 — lack the internal steel and detailing needed to perform well during an earthquake. They are brittle, and when they fail, they often collapse without warning.
San Francisco believes there are about 4,500 of these buildings citywide.
What the New Ordinance Requires
This is a screening ordinance, not a mandatory retrofit — yet. Here’s what’s required:
The City will notify owners of potentially affected buildings.
Owners must hire a licensed structural engineer to complete a City-developed screening form.
Engineers will identify whether the building likely qualifies as non-ductile.
Screening costs will range from $300 to $3,200.
Once notified, owners will have 18 months to submit their screening report.
If your building was built before 1976 and has concrete structural elements, you’ll likely be subject to this requirement.
Why Concrete Retrofits Are So Much Harder (and Costlier)
The 2013–2021 Soft Story Retrofit Program focused mostly on ground floors. Concrete retrofits are different:
Entire structures may need reinforcing, not just a single floor.
Estimated retrofit costs: $200–$300 per square foot.
Tenant disruption may affect all floors, raising questions about temporary relocation and displacement.
Financing remains an open question — no subsidies or loan programs have been announced yet.
What Worked Last Time — and What’s Missing Now
San Francisco’s Soft Story Program made nearly 4,900 buildings safer, protecting over 100,000 residents. Key features included:
Phased compliance timelines
Cost pass-throughs to tenants (spread over 20 years)
Temporary relocation support
Access to financing tools like PACE and City-backed seismic safety loans
Today’s concrete screening ordinance doesn’t yet offer any of those supports. That’s cause for concern — especially for smaller property owners and rent-controlled buildings.
Development Pressure: A New Twist
This ordinance also intersects with California’s aggressive housing production goals. If retrofits are too costly, will owners opt to demolish and redevelop? Could retrofit requirements be used to justify Ellis Act evictions or redevelopment of rent-controlled properties?
On the flip side, making buildings safer may unlock new potential for densification, adaptive reuse, or incentive zoning.
Expect to see these issues debated at the intersection of land use, housing, and resilience policy.
Key Takeaway
San Francisco’s concrete building ordinance is a smart step toward public safety, but without the right support systems, it may lead to more disruption than protection.
If you’re a property owner, developer, or tenant advocate — now is the time to engage.
📬 Need Help Navigating This?
I work with small developers, property owners, and civic leaders to translate policy into action. Whether you need help interpreting the ordinance, developing a retrofit strategy, or aligning compliance with your development goals — I can help.
📧 Reach out at kate@ebo-strategy.com
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